The 2024 New Hampshire Republican Primary turned out to be a two candidate contest: between the defeated candidate in the 2020 United States Presidential Election, Donald Trump, and his former Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley. In the eight days between the 2024 Iowa Republican Caucus and tonight, the other noteworthy candidate, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, dropped out and endorsed Trump.
In past years, demographics would be an important consideration, often with those demographics being a matter of stereotypes. New Hampshire was the home of Rockefeller Republicans, well-educated, affluent people who were fiscally conservative but soft and reserved in their manners. And while this was an exaggeration, it was true enough that many people predicted that New Hampshire would be one of the states where the (generally) more moderate Haley could score an upset, or at least a close race. And for once, the generaliations worked. Although not all of the vote has been counted, Trump is winning---but by a relatively moderate lead of 54-44.
There are two ways to parse this. If you look at Trump as a defeated candidate who is facing legal challenges and seems to be having lapses of memory, then getting over 50% of the vote, or really a sizeable share of the vote at all, seems to make him an inevitable front runner for the nomination.
But on the other hand, as the presumed standard bearer with the heaviest name recognition, and with constant media coverage, the fact that in two contests, he has only gotten a little over 50% of the vote, show that there are still large numbers of people in the Republican Party who do not view him as the most obvious option. This is especially interesting in comparison to Biden's victory in New Hampshire--- a contest where he wasn't even on the ballot.
And, as with most things in politics, what will happen next remains to be seen.